Policy Brief · RISEI Lab · Northwestern

Making Time Count in Vocational Rehabilitation

Evidence on Employment, Earnings, and Return on Investment for Transition-Age Youth in Maine

Michelle Yin & Diego Guerrero · Northwestern University

Corresponding author: Michelle Yin · michelleyin.org · riseilab.org

Based on: The Economics of Vocational Rehabilitation: Time Use and Labor Market Payoffs. Forthcoming at Rehabilitation Counseling Bulletin.

Introduction. The Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA) positioned transition-age youth (14–24 years old) with disabilities as a priority population for Vocational Rehabilitation (VR). The policy expanded pre-employment transition services, including benefits counseling, financial literacy, career exploration, peer mentoring, and strengthening connections between schools and the workforce. Yet a fundamental question has remained unexamined: how do youth actually spend their time while enrolled in VR, and does it matter for their employment outcomes?

This policy brief presents findings from a new study of Maine's VR program, conducted under the Pathways to Partnerships (P2P) project, a multi-agency collaboration between the Maine Division of Vocational Rehabilitation (MDVR), the Maine Department of Education (MDOE), and Alpha One (Maine's Center for Independent Living). Using administrative records from 2005 to 2017 for 5,875 transition-age youth linked to quarterly wage data, the study is the first to decompose VR participation into time spent employed, time receiving services, and time spent waiting. The results provide an evidence base for the P2P model's emphasis on integrated, employment-centered transition planning.

11.6
Average quarters in VR (~3 years)
40%
Of VR time spent waiting for services
42%
Of VR time spent in employment
20%
Of VR time receiving purchased services
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Finding One

Employment During VR Predicts Long-Term Success

After accounting for individual characteristics, prior work history, and local labor market conditions, youth who spent a greater share of their VR time employed experienced better outcomes across every measure examined. The table below summarizes the estimated associations for each 10 percentage-point increase in the share of VR time spent working.

Estimated effect of a 10 percentage-point increase in the share of VR time spent employed on four post-VR outcomes, with statistical significance.
Outcome Measure Effect per 10pp Increase in VR Time Employed Statistical Significance
Employment at VR case closure+2 percentage pointsp < 0.01
Avg. quarterly employment rate (post-VR)+8 percentage pointsp < 0.01
Total quarters employed post-VR+0.4 quartersp < 0.01
Avg. quarterly earnings (post-VR)+$323p < 0.05

Source: Yin, M., & Guerrero, D. (forthcoming). The Economics of Vocational Rehabilitation: Time Use and Labor Market Payoffs. Rehabilitation Counseling Bulletin. Controls include demographics, disability type, pre-VR employment, county and year fixed effects. N = 5,875.  About p-values: the probability the observed effect arose by chance; p < 0.05 (<5% chance, "statistically significant"), p < 0.01 (<1% chance, stronger evidence).

Longer VR duration alone was not a strong predictor of outcomes. Each additional quarter corresponded to a small reduction in employment at closure, though modestly higher earnings over time. Once employment during VR was accounted for, this negative association was substantially attenuated, suggesting that extended participation without work experience is the primary driver of weaker results.

Who Benefits Most

Youth without prior work experience gain the most

Without prior work experience

23%

increase in post-VR earnings
Bridge to first employment

With prior work experience

9%

increase in post-VR earnings
Marginal additional lift

The benefits of employment during VR were most pronounced for youth who entered without prior work experience. For these individuals, employment during VR was strongly associated with higher post-closure employment rates and earnings, reinforcing the role of VR as a bridge to first employment for disconnected youth. Programs that emphasize work-based learning, paid internships, and supported employment during VR participation may be especially effective for youth who are disconnected from work at entry.

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Application

What This Means for the P2P Model

Maine's Pathways to Partnerships (P2P) project was designed to address exactly the challenges this research identifies. P2P brings together MDVR, the Maine Department of Education, and Alpha One to build a coordinated, interagency transition system that moves youth with disabilities from school to Competitive Integrated Employment (CIE). The findings from this study provide direct empirical support for the P2P model's core design principles:

Principle 1. Early engagement matters.

P2P serves youth as young as 10–13 years old, providing career readiness activities before they enter VR. This study shows that youth who enter VR without work experience gain the most from employment during the program: a 23% increase in earnings two years after VR. Early career exploration through P2P gives younger youth a head start, so they are better prepared for work-based learning once they begin VR services.

Principle 2. Interagency coordination reduces waiting.

Youth in the study spent 40% of their VR time neither employed nor receiving services. This estimate reflects the average share of time across youth in the sample and includes periods when participants may be engaged in school-based activities outside the VR system. P2P's seamless system across MDVR, MDOE, and Alpha One is designed to eliminate these gaps through coordinated referrals, shared case planning, and continuous service delivery across agencies. When one agency's services end, another's can begin without the waiting periods that weaken outcomes.

Principle 3. Work-based learning is the key driver of success.

Employment during VR nearly doubles the return on investment. P2P's emphasis on connecting youth to paid internships, apprenticeships, and supported employment during the transition process is directly supported by the evidence. Every additional quarter spent working during VR translates to better employment rates, shorter unemployment spells, and higher earnings after exit.

Principle 4. Duration is less important than what happens during VR.

Simply spending more time in VR does not improve outcomes. What matters is how that time is used. P2P's model of active, employment-focused transition planning—rather than prolonged service receipt without workforce engagement—aligns with the finding that time allocation, not duration, predicts success.

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Action

Recommendations for VR Counselors, Educators, and Policymakers

For VR Counselors and Transition Teams

  1. Embed work-based learning into every IPE.

    Paid internships, apprenticeships, and supported employment during VR are associated with improved short- and long-term outcomes. Use P2P's interagency structure to coordinate placements across school, VR, and community partners.

  2. Prioritize youth entering VR without jobs.

    These youth gain the most from structured work exposure—a 23% increase in post-closure earnings vs. 9% for those already employed. Target work-based learning resources toward this group.

  3. Monitor time use and act on warning signs.

    Extended waiting periods (neither employed nor receiving services) predict weaker outcomes. Track time use as part of case management and intervene when youth are disengaged.

For State Policymakers and Agency Administrators

  1. Reduce waiting through coordinated intake.

    Youth spend 40% of their VR time in a holding pattern. Streamline eligibility determination, accelerate IPE development, and strengthen referral pipelines among MDVR, MDOE, and Alpha One.

  2. Expand employer partnerships.

    Employment during VR nearly doubles returns ($5.25 vs. $2.84 per dollar). Invest in employer engagement through the P2P network to create more paid work-based learning slots for transition-age youth.

  3. Track time use as a performance metric.

    Current measures emphasize closure status and employment at exit. Adding the share of VR time spent employed, receiving services, and waiting would provide a richer picture of program quality and help identify youth at risk of disengagement before outcomes deteriorate.

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Engagement

Get Involved: Connecting Youth to the P2P Model

Who Should Participate

Youth with disabilities ages 10–24 in Maine

who want to build career readiness skills, gain work experience, and prepare for competitive employment after high school. The evidence is clear: youth with disabilities who participate in employment during VR achieve substantially better labor market outcomes. Maine's P2P project is building the system to make this happen—but its success depends on reaching the youth and families who can benefit most.

How to Help

How Families, Schools, and Employers Can Help

Families

If your child has a disability and is between ages 10 and 24, ask their school about P2P transition services. Early enrollment—especially for younger students (ages 10–13)—gives youth a foundation in career readiness before they enter VR. The research shows that youth who enter VR with some work exposure achieve the strongest outcomes.

Schools & transition coordinators

Refer eligible students to P2P and coordinate with MDVR counselors to integrate work-based learning into Individualized Education Programs (IEPs) and Individual Plans for Employment (IPEs). The study shows that VR is most effective when paired with employment—schools play a central role in making that connection.

Employers

Partner with P2P to offer paid internships, apprenticeships, or supported employment placements for transition-age youth. Employment during VR nearly doubles the return on investment—and employer engagement is the key to scaling these opportunities. Contact MDVR to discuss partnership opportunities.

Community organizations

Alpha One and other community-based organizations can help connect out-of-school youth to P2P services and provide the independent living support that sustains workforce engagement. If you work with young people with disabilities in Maine, contact P2P to explore collaboration.

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Appendix

Data, Methods, and Limitations

Study design

The study analyzed 5,875 transition-age youth (ages 14–24) who applied for VR in Maine between 2005 and 2017 and received an Individualized Plan for Employment (IPE). VR case records from the RSA-911 were linked to quarterly unemployment insurance wage data from the Maine Department of Labor to track employment and earnings for eight quarters before and after VR. A subsample of 2,031 youth (2014–2017) included detailed purchased service records. The study uses regression-based mediation analysis and an opportunity cost ROI framework with a 10% discount rate. All estimates are conditional associations; unobserved factors such as motivation and local labor demand may influence results. Findings are from a single state and may not generalize to all VR systems.

About This Brief

Based on: Yin, M., & Guerrero, D. (forthcoming). The Economics of Vocational Rehabilitation: Time Use and Labor Market Payoffs. Rehabilitation Counseling Bulletin.

Conducted under the Maine Pathways to Partnerships (P2P) project, funded by the U.S. Department of Education, Rehabilitation Services Administration Disability Innovation Fund (Grant H421E230028, 2023–2028).

How to Cite

Cite this brief (APA):

Yin, M., & Guerrero, D. (2026). Making time count in vocational rehabilitation: Evidence from Maine's Pathways to Partnerships project [RISEI Policy Brief]. Research and Innovation for Social and Economic Elevation Lab, Northwestern University.

Cite the underlying study (APA):

Yin, M., & Guerrero, D. (forthcoming). The economics of vocational rehabilitation: Time use and labor market payoffs. Rehabilitation Counseling Bulletin.

References

  1. Yin, M., & Guerrero, D. (forthcoming). The economics of vocational rehabilitation: Time use and labor market payoffs. Rehabilitation Counseling Bulletin.
  2. Yin, M., Siwach, G., & Lin, D. (2023). Vocational rehabilitation services and labor market outcomes for transition-age youth with disabilities in Maine. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 42(1), 166–197.

The contents of this policy brief were developed under grant H421E230028 from the U.S. Department of Education (Department). The Department does not mandate or prescribe practices, models, or other activities described or discussed in this document. The content of this policy brief does not necessarily represent the policy of the Department (EDGAR 75.620).