Ending subminimum wages — without costing workers with disabilities their jobs.
The first national quasi-experimental evidence on Section 14(c) elimination. Administrative records across 15 states, linked with individual-level panel data. Interactive state-by-state dashboards. Two peer-ready policy briefs. A model federal demonstration in Virginia.
The protective argument for 14(c) was empirically thin. So we tested it.
Section 14(c) of the Fair Labor Standards Act let certified employers pay workers with disabilities below the federal minimum wage — in some cases, as little as $0.22 an hour. The standard defense was that without it, employers simply wouldn’t hire. We ran the first national quasi-experimental analysis of that claim across 15 states, using DOL administrative records (2015–2024) and CPS data (2009–2024).
No statistically detectable aggregate employment decline. A significant drop in welfare participation. A median post-transition wage 20× above the sub-minimum. The case for 14(c) collapses under the data — and so does the case for not phasing it out.
Read the paper → Virginia EPIC projectWorkers didn’t lose jobs. They stopped relying on welfare. The policy worked the way its supporters always said it would — and its critics said it couldn’t.— Yin, Seo & Vu (2026), Labour Economics
Status quo vs. phase-out reality.
The predictions that supported keeping Section 14(c) in place — and what the national data actually show in states that eliminated it.
Critics of elimination predicted
- Widespread job loss for workers with disabilities
- Reduced formal employment, pushed onto welfare
- Fewer opportunities in sheltered settings
- Economic harm to vulnerable populations
- Employers would walk away from hiring
After elimination, in 15 states
- No statistically significant aggregate job loss
- −12.4% decline in welfare dependence
- ~2,000 workers per state transition out of 14(c)
- Positive effects on annual wage income
- Median post-transition wages 20× higher
Explore state-by-state minimum & subminimum wage data.
Interactive dashboard tracking state minimum wages and Section 14(c) subminimum wage elimination over time. Select states, compare wage trajectories, and watch the geography of policy change shift year-by-year.
Minimum & subminimum wage analysis
Cross-state comparison of minimum wage trajectories and Section 14(c) elimination status. Select states from the dropdown to compare wage floors and subminimum wage timelines.
14(c) elimination over time.
Year-by-year geographic progression of Section 14(c) elimination across the United States. Drag the timeline to see where policy has changed and where it has not.
Translation for decision-makers.
Two briefs from the national 15-state analysis — a federal policy brief and a Virginia-specific companion for policymakers, VR practitioners, and service providers on the ground.
Eliminating Subminimum Wages Does Not Cost Workers with Disabilities Their Jobs
National policy brief summarizing the first quasi-experimental study of Section 14(c) elimination across 15 states. No aggregate job loss, −12.4% welfare dependence, and policy recommendations for states considering phase-out.
Wage Policy Reform in Virginia: Minimum Wage, Subminimum Wage & EPIC
Comprehensive guide for Virginia policymakers, VR practitioners, and service providers covering Virginia’s minimum wage trajectory, the national 14(c) landscape, Virginia’s phase-out from 4,000 to 129 workers, and the RPRJ EPIC project.
The labor market effects of subminimum wage elimination.
Flagship peer-reviewed paper. Novel administrative panel linked to CPS individual-level data. Event-study and difference-in-differences designs identify dynamic treatment effects across the staggered elimination of Section 14(c).
The Labor Market Effects of Subminimum Wage Elimination: Evidence from a National Analysis
Labour Economics, 100, 102884 (2026) · School of Education and Social Policy, Northwestern University
This study examines the labor market effects of eliminating Section 14(c) subminimum wage employment laws for people with disabilities in the United States. We construct a novel panel dataset combining the universe of Department of Labor Section 14(c) administrative records (2015–2024) with individual-level data from the Current Population Survey (2009–2024). Exploiting the staggered elimination of Section 14(c) across fifteen states, we employ event-study and difference-in-differences designs to identify dynamic treatment effects.
We find that elimination policies reduce formal subminimum wage employment by approximately 2,000 workers per state within two years. Importantly, we find no statistically significant reductions in overall employment rates, competitive integrated employment, or hours worked among workers with disabilities. Estimates suggest economically meaningful reductions in welfare income receipt. These findings indicate that subminimum wage abolition achieves its intended policy objective by eliminating formal sheltered employment without imposing the adverse employment effects that critics of minimum wage policies predict.
JEL H55 · J14 · J22 · J71 · J79
Translating the evidence into state policy and practice.
Our wage policy work runs on the ground in Virginia through the RPRJ EPIC federal model demonstration. We advise federal and state agencies on phase-out design, provider transition, and workforce-support infrastructure. If you’re working on 14(c) transition, competitive integrated employment, or minimum wage policy for workers with disabilities, we want to talk.